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Rodez 2–1 Annecy

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Antoine Valnet, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win46%2.05
Draw28%3.40
Annecy win26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy −0.553%1.78
Rodez −0.547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Thibault Delphis · Annecy
29'🟨Alexis Casadei · Annecy
58'🟨Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez
65'⚽Abdel Hbouch · Annecy
76'🟨Axel Drouhin · Annecy
77'⚽Raphael Lipinski · Rodez
90'🟨Tairyk Arconte · Rodez
90'⚽Samy Benchama · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots8
4On target3
4Corners4
12Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezAnnecy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.730.66
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul-Lignon
coach days1062.001641.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.420.59
elo1443.691467.99
elo momentum (last 5)-10.3120.73
eye test v1-0.30-0.16
eye trend v10.160.39
first sub minute (last 10)63.7054.70
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.710.69
league points13.0015.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8073.40
possession avg (last 5)39.4046.40
rest days3.313.06
scorer concentration0.270.21
season ppg1.181.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.802.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8010.60
skill v1-0.84-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-0.560.15
sterile dominance v1-0.91-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.320.22
threat rate (last 3)0.310.26
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20