← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Mickael Leleu, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.90 |
| Bastia win | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia −0.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Nancy −0.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Brandon Bokangu · Nancy |
| 46' | 🟨 | Adrien Julloux · Nancy |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sebas · Bastia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Felix Tomi · Bastia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicolas Saint-Ruf · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.09 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Marcel Picot |
| coach days | 727.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1316.86 | 1400.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.42 | -20.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 11.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |