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Clermont 1–1 Montpellier

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Montpellier win45%2.05
Clermont win28%3.30
Draw27%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Montpellier +0.2553%1.80
Clermont +0.2547%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Nathanaël Mbuku · Montpellier
45'⚽Abdoul Kader Bamba · Clermont
62'🟨Theo Chennahi · Montpellier
76'🟨Simon Ngapandouetnbu · Montpellier
90'🟨Ayanda Sishuba · Montpellier

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots16
6On target4
4Corners10
11Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontMontpellier
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.00
box share (last 5)0.580.59
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days88.00210.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.10
dominance (last 5)0.360.49
elo1407.111446.17
elo momentum (last 5)-19.892.01
eye test v1-1.080.19
eye trend v10.090.60
first sub minute (last 10)46.4059.80
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.700.78
league points14.0017.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8083.00
possession avg (last 5)51.6050.00
rest days4.063.31
scorer concentration0.250.25
season ppg1.171.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.00-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.8012.40
skill v10.670.49
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.40
squad age—25.25
state index-0.76-0.13
sterile dominance v11.050.11
threat rate (last 10)0.170.25
threat rate (last 3)0.150.30
threat rate (last 5)0.160.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20