← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Thierry Bouille, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC win | 42% | 2.45 |
| Dunkerque win | 31% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque −0.25 | 52% | 2.02 |
| Pau FC −0.25 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Enzo Bardeli · Dunkerque |
| 23' | ⚽ | Thomas Robinet · Dunkerque |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ousmane Kanté · Pau FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ousmane Kanté · Pau FC |
| 63' | 🟥 | Ousmane Kanté · Pau FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Enzo Bardeli · Dunkerque |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pau FC | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Nouste Camp |
| coach days | 84.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1455.38 | 1450.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.30 | -10.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |