← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 |
| Le Mans FC win | 18% | 5.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC −1 | 51% | 1.98 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Mahmoud Jaber · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 21' | ⚽ | Antoine Rabillard · Le Mans FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lauray · Le Mans FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Florian Tardieu · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 32' | 🟨 | Samuel Yohou · Le Mans FC |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Dame Gueye · Le Mans FC |
| 68' | ⚽ | William Harhouz · Le Mans FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Milan Robin · Le Mans FC |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Tardieu · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 81' | 🟨 | Irvin Cardona · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Le Mans FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 78.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1576.03 | 1388.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.30 | 20.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |