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Dunkerque 0–1 Montpellier

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win44%2.25
Draw28%3.39
Montpellier win28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque −0.2551%1.94
Montpellier −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Anto Sekongo · Dunkerque
60'🟨Aboubakary Kanté · Dunkerque
71'🟨Alexandre Mendy · Montpellier
82'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Montpellier
90'🟨Khalil Fayad · Montpellier

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots8
3On target3
6Corners4
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunkerqueMontpellier
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.750.64
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel Tribut
coach days109.00200.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.09
dominance (last 5)0.550.44
elo1462.821423.84
elo momentum (last 5)-7.55-14.95
eye test v10.32-0.40
eye trend v10.080.63
first sub minute (last 10)56.9051.70
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.690.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v1—0.77
league points13.0011.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0080.40
possession avg (last 5)59.2046.20
rest days14.7513.75
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.301.10
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.40
skill v11.270.02
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.00
squad age—25.25
state index-0.04-0.46
sterile dominance v11.08-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.190.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20