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Rodez 2–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win46%2.11
Rodez win27%3.48
Draw27%3.58

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez +0.553%1.80
Reims +0.547%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Samy Benchama · Rodez
20'⚽Octave Joly · Rodez
45'⚽Keito Nakamura · Reims
54'⚽Ange Tia · Reims
64'🟨Abdoul Koné · Reims
72'🟨Yohan Demoncy · Reims
76'🟨Sergio Akieme · Reims
86'⚽Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez
90'🟨Mathys Tourraine · Rodez
90'🟨Ras Zabi · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots13
3On target5
2Corners10
5Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.780.67
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul-Lignon
coach days
1051.00
108.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.23
dominance (last 5)0.410.60
elo1452.561543.75
elo momentum (last 5)-5.19-18.30
eye test v1-0.410.80
eye trend v1-0.230.11
first sub minute (last 10)58.0053.50
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.760.72
league points12.0014.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4083.60
possession avg (last 5)40.2053.60
rest days13.2513.25
scorer concentration0.250.15
season ppg1.331.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.205.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8015.80
skill v1-0.820.78
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.80
squad age—25.22
state index-0.36-0.09
sterile dominance v1-0.960.04
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.300.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00