← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Brendan Roffet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Grenoble win | 31% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grenoble +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Pau FC +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Omar Sadik · Pau FC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Yadaly Diaby · Grenoble |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nesta Elphege · Grenoble |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Sissoko · Pau FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cheikh Fall · Pau FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 24 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grenoble | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade des Alpes |
| coach days | 289.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1435.26 | 1454.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.17 | 31.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 13.25 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |