⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Grenoble 1–1 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Brendan Roffet, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC win39%2.50
Grenoble win31%3.02
Draw30%3.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble +0.2554%1.78
Pau FC +0.2546%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Omar Sadik · Pau FC
48'⚽Yadaly Diaby · Grenoble
78'🟨Nesta Elphege · Grenoble
90'🟨Omar Sissoko · Pau FC
90'⚽Cheikh Fall · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots24
5On target6
3Corners5
13Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenoblePau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.71
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days289.0077.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.453.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.450.60
elo1435.261454.20
elo momentum (last 5)4.1731.22
eye test v1-0.630.16
eye trend v1-0.050.34
first sub minute (last 10)58.0051.90
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.750.63
league points9.0020.00
league rank15.004.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2087.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2050.00
rest days13.2514.00
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg0.902.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.804.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.8013.80
skill v10.070.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.00
state index-0.150.36
sterile dominance v10.470.19
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.160.29
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60