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Reims 2–4 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Tifenn Leprodhomme, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win60%1.57
Draw25%3.97
Grenoble win15%6.84

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble −151%1.94
Reims −149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Yadaly Diaby · Grenoble
28'⚽Gaëtan Paquiez · Grenoble
33'🟨Teddy Teuma · Reims
35'⚽Keito Nakamura · Reims
72'⚽Mattheo Xantippe · Grenoble
80'⚽Evans Fabrice Maurin · Grenoble
87'⚽Abdoul Koné · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
21Shots6
8On target4
7Corners0
7Fouls9
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReimsGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.670.67
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Delaune
coach days95.00276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.902.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.590.46
elo1567.011412.01
elo momentum (last 5)9.03-14.02
eye test v10.36-0.80
eye trend v10.28-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)51.8057.80
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v1—0.75
league points14.006.00
league rank7.0018.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8078.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2047.00
rest days7.757.75
scorer concentration0.180.33
season ppg1.750.67
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.009.00
skill v10.71-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.20
squad age25.22—
state index0.50-0.75
sterile dominance v10.160.05
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.310.14
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20