← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Star win | 50% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Rodez win | 24% | 4.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Star −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Rodez −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Jean Lambert Evan's Allan · Rodez |
| 30' | 🟨 | Mathis Magnin · Rodez |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bradley Danger · Red Star |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kenny Nagera · Rodez |
| 73' | ⚽ | Kemo Cissé · Red Star |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nolan Galves · Rodez |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kevin Cabral · Red Star |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jordan Mendes Correia · Rodez |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Red Star | Rodez |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Bauer |
| coach days | 460.00 | 1038.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1407.76 | 1452.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.05 | 1.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 4.72 | 7.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |