← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Azzedine Souifi, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 38% | 2.54 |
| Nancy win | 34% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nancy −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Guingamp −0.25 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.98 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Vignon Ouotro · Nancy |
| 60' | ⚽ | Donatien Gomis · Guingamp |
| 63' | 🟨 | Maxence Carlier · Nancy |
| 70' | 🟨 | Maxence Carlier · Nancy |
| 70' | 🟥 | Maxence Carlier · Nancy |
| 78' | ⚽ | Zakaria Fdaouch · Nancy |
| 85' | ⚽ | Louis Mafouta · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Donatien Gomis · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dylan Ourega · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nehemiah Fernandez · Nancy |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nehemiah Fernandez |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nehemiah Fernandez · Nancy |
| coach days | 520.00 | 702.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1482.16 | 1331.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.63 | -8.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |