← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 39% | 2.47 |
| Dunkerque win | 31% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Bastia −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.69 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Anto Sekongo · Dunkerque |
| 42' | 🟨 | Thomas Robinet · Dunkerque |
| 55' | 🟨 | Zakaria Ariss · Bastia |
| 68' | 🟨 | Thomas Robinet · Dunkerque |
| 68' | 🟥 | Thomas Robinet · Dunkerque |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Armand Cesari |
| coach days | 489.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1411.58 | 1462.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.00 | 19.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.51 |
| league points | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |