← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 62% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.75 |
| Guingamp win | 18% | 5.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 51% | 1.98 |
| Guingamp −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp |
| 29' | ⚽ | Amine Hemia · Guingamp |
| 44' | ⚽ (og) | Dylan Louiserre · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maxime Bernauer · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Abdel Hakim Abdallah · Guingamp |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mahmoud Jaber · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 67' | ⚽ | Darly Nlandu · Guingamp |
| 81' | 🟥 | Maxime Bernauer · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tanguy Ahile · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chico Lamba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 57.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1578.48 | 1467.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.16 | 3.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.98 | 3.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.95 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |