← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rodez win | 39% | 2.46 |
| Pau FC win | 33% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Rodez −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.98 |
| Under | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Pau FC |
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Mathis Magnin · Pau FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Samy Benchama · Rodez |
| 66' | 🟨 | Setigui Karamoko · Pau FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Omar Sadik · Pau FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Omar Sadik · Pau FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mathis Saka · Rodez |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rodez | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Paul-Lignon |
| coach days | 1030.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1489.36 | 1448.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | 25.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.55 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |