← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 39% | 2.51 |
| Grenoble win | 31% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grenoble +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bastia +0.25 | 47% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Hianga'a M'Bock · Grenoble |
| 41' | 🟥 | Jeremy Sebas · Bastia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Alan Kerouedan · Grenoble |
| 58' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Paquiez · Grenoble |
| 58' | 🟨 | Amine Boutrah · Bastia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Ducrocq · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grenoble | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade des Alpes |
| coach days | 268.00 | 482.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1413.83 | 1409.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.21 | -50.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.56 | -1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |