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Pau FC 1–0 Laval

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC win42%2.30
Draw29%3.25
Laval win29%3.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval −0.2550%1.92
Pau FC −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.74
Over44%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Thibault Vargas · Laval
25'🟨William Bianda · Laval
29'🟨Ousmane Kanté · Pau FC
45'🟨Edhy Zuliani · Pau FC
53'⚽Rayane Messi Tanfouri · Pau FC
62'🟨Daylam Meddah · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots5
4On target2
4Corners4
10Fouls18
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPau FCLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.640.66
cards avg (last 5)2.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNouste Camp
coach days53.002276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.924.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.40
elo1420.971455.80
elo momentum (last 5)21.00-16.16
eye test v1-0.160.04
eye trend v1-0.130.08
first sub minute (last 10)51.7064.30
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.630.62
league points11.007.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4083.40
possession avg (last 5)49.0053.80
rest days4.024.02
scorer concentration0.220.50
season ppg1.831.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.809.80
skill v10.470.78
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
state index0.08-0.43
sterile dominance v10.390.96
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20