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Guingamp 2–1 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Remi Landry, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win38%2.54
Dunkerque win34%2.83
Draw28%3.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque −0.2554%1.78
Guingamp −0.2546%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Freddy Mbemba · Guingamp
16'⚽Amine Hemia · Guingamp
44'⚽Enzo Bardeli · Dunkerque
54'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Dunkerque
81'🟨Amine Hemia · Guingamp
87'🟨Jérémy Hatchi · Guingamp
87'🟨Geoffrey Kondo · Dunkerque
90'🟨Aristide Zossou · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots13
3On target4
4Corners4
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.640.78
cards avg (last 5)0.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de Roudourou
coach days510.0084.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.19
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.207.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.222.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.15
dominance (last 5)0.420.46
elo1459.391456.81
elo momentum (last 5)-33.16-8.61
eye test v10.190.33
eye trend v1-0.270.06
first sub minute (last 10)62.1060.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)3.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.580.53
league points7.009.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2085.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2062.60
rest days3.274.02
scorer concentration0.220.33
season ppg1.001.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.00
skill v10.441.52
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
state index-0.73-0.44
sterile dominance v10.541.67
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40