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AS Saint-Étienne 3–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne win47%2.03
Reims win27%3.58
Draw26%3.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims −0.553%1.85
AS Saint-Étienne −0.547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Norman Bassette · Reims
27'⚽Lucas Stassin · AS Saint-Étienne
40'🟨N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon · Reims
43'⚽ (pen)Teddy Teuma · Reims
45'⚽Lucas Stassin · AS Saint-Étienne
49'⚽Igor Miladinović · AS Saint-Étienne
69'⚽Teddy Teuma · Reims
90'🟨Ange Tia · Reims
90'🟨Sergio Akieme · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
16Shots17
10On target7
1Corners6
6Fouls26
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS Saint-ÉtienneReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.690.64
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Geoffroy-Guichard
coach days50.0081.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.08
corner diff avg (last 5)3.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.512.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.670.62
elo1562.651560.70
elo momentum (last 5)21.80-14.13
eye test v10.720.04
eye trend v1-0.33-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)56.2050.00
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.590.76
league points11.008.00
league rank4.0013.00
matches since blank11.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.8086.00
possession avg (last 5)66.0061.00
rest days7.007.25
scorer concentration0.180.20
season ppg2.201.60
shot diff avg (last 5)7.604.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.2012.00
skill v11.961.47
sot against avg (last 5)1.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
squad age—25.22
state index0.650.02
sterile dominance v11.441.31
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.18
threat rate (last 5)0.220.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40