← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 43% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Bastia win | 27% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia −0.5 | 56% | 1.85 |
| Montpellier −0.5 | 44% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Christopher Jullien · Montpellier |
| 18' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Montpellier |
| 44' | 🟨 | Issiaka Karamoko · Bastia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Bećir Omeragić · Montpellier |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tom Ducrocq · Bastia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Simon Ngapandouetnbu · Montpellier |
| 73' | 🟨 | Juan Guevara · Bastia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Everson Junior · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 172.00 | 476.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1431.67 | 1433.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.54 | -41.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 4.72 | 3.79 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.25 | — |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |