← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Red Star win | 31% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nancy +0 | 56% | 1.75 |
| Red Star +0 | 44% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟥 | Enzo Basilio · Nancy |
| 26' | 🟨 | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Red Star |
| 54' | 🟨 | Dembo Sylla · Red Star |
| 74' | 🟨 | Teddy Bouriaud · Nancy |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ćazim Suljić · Nancy |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jovany Ikanga · Red Star |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaetan Poussin · Red Star |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Red Star |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Marcel Picot |
| coach days | 688.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1330.56 | 1415.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.47 | 48.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |