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Grenoble 1–3 Annecy

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Perreau Niel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win39%2.53
Draw31%3.16
Annecy win31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy −0.2554%1.78
Grenoble −0.2546%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.57
Over39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

43'🟨Julien Kouadio · Annecy
52'⚽Quentin Paris · Annecy
60'⚽Thibault Rambaud · Annecy
83'⚽Josué Tiendrebeogo · Annecy
90'⚽Yadaly Diaby · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots12
3On target7
4Corners10
8Fouls18
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleAnnecy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.690.62
cards avg (last 5)1.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days261.001602.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.122.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.18
dominance (last 5)0.420.44
elo1440.501456.33
elo momentum (last 5)-2.70-16.66
eye test v1-0.41-1.59
eye trend v1-0.090.05
first sub minute (last 10)64.0057.40
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.770.68
league points5.005.00
league rank17.0016.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)34.2041.60
rest days6.256.25
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg0.831.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.206.40
skill v1-0.89-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.802.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.001.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.601.60
state index-0.18-0.52
sterile dominance v1-1.21-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.280.17
threat rate (last 3)0.350.18
threat rate (last 5)0.300.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20