← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Mon, Sep 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 37% | 2.71 |
| Guingamp win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Guingamp +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.96 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Lucas Mincarelli Davin · Montpellier |
| 28' | ⚽ | Donatien Gomis · Guingamp |
| 35' | 🟨 | Darly Nlandu · Guingamp |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pays · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victor Orakpo · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| coach days | 502.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1481.53 | 1438.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.09 | -12.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 16.28 | 17.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |