← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Kubler
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Star win | 37% | 2.58 |
| Pau FC win | 33% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Star +0 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Pau FC +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Hacene Benali · Red Star |
| 2' | 🟥 | Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa · Pau FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jean Ruiz · Pau FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Matthieu Huard · Red Star |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Hacene Benali · Red Star |
| 65' | 🟥 | Tom Pouilly · Pau FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Pau FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kemo Cissé · Red Star |
| 81' | ⚽ | Damien Durand · Red Star |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pau FC | Red Star |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Nouste Camp |
| coach days | 42.00 | 438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1422.98 | 1393.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.15 | 27.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |