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AS Saint-Étienne 1–1 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne win65%1.44
Draw21%4.80
Grenoble win13%7.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble −1.2552%1.90
AS Saint-Étienne −1.2548%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Mickael Nade · AS Saint-Étienne
11'🟨Samba Diba · Grenoble
36'⚽Mickael Nade · AS Saint-Étienne
45'🟨Gaëtan Paquiez · Grenoble
55'🟨Loris Mouyokolo · Grenoble
77'⚽Yadaly Diaby · Grenoble
90'🟨João Ferreira · AS Saint-Étienne
90'🟨Loris Mouyokolo · Grenoble
90'🟥Loris Mouyokolo · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots7
6On target2
9Corners1
12Fouls20
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS Saint-ÉtienneGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.650.65
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Geoffroy-Guichard
coach days29.00241.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.601.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.17
dominance (last 5)0.570.46
elo1559.791426.03
elo momentum (last 5)30.42-37.68
eye test v10.58-0.38
eye trend v1-0.080.32
first sub minute (last 10)58.9066.10
form points (last 5)10.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.580.75
league points7.001.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank9.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.0012.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8079.40
possession avg (last 5)60.8040.20
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg2.330.25
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.4010.80
skill v11.54-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.702.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.80
state index0.56-1.06
sterile dominance v11.18-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60