← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Perreau Niel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 50% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Guingamp win | 23% | 4.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp −0.75 | 55% | 1.85 |
| Bastia −0.75 | 45% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Darly Nlandu · Guingamp |
| 11' | ⚽ | Jérémy Hatchi · Guingamp |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gustave Akueson · Bastia |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nicolas Parravicini · Bastia |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sebas · Bastia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Christophe Vincent · Bastia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dylan Louiserre · Guingamp |
| 55' | ⚽ | Louis Mafouta · Guingamp |
| 63' | ⚽ | Amine Boutrah · Bastia |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jérémie Matumona · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 27 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Armand Cesari |
| coach days | 455.00 | 486.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1459.96 | 1464.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.73 | -36.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |