⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Pau FC 2–0 Reims

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Mon, Aug 25, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Taleb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win41%2.35
Pau FC win33%2.98
Draw26%3.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC +0.2553%1.85
Reims +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.81
Under46%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Jean Ruiz · Pau FC
26'⚽Omar Sissoko · Pau FC
42'🟨Ras Zabi · Reims
75'🟨Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa · Pau FC
89'🟨Rayan Touzghar · Pau FC
90'🟨Kylian Gasnier · Pau FC
90'🟨Abdoul Koné · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
7Shots7
5On target1
5Corners4
7Fouls16
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPau FCReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.650.61
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNouste Camp
coach days24.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.862.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.54
elo1403.671577.73
elo momentum (last 5)7.71-26.17
eye test v10.10-0.08
eye trend v1-0.75-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)57.0048.90
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.600.77
matches since blank7.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.0082.20
possession avg (last 5)50.8046.80
rest days10.039.28
season ppg2.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.202.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4013.20
skill v10.820.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age—25.22
state index-0.19-0.11
sterile dominance v10.26-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.160.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00