← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Valnet
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Red Star win | 28% | 3.71 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Star −0.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Guingamp −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.94 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Jovany Ikanga · Red Star |
| 38' | 🟨 | Amine Hemia · Guingamp |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matthieu Huard · Red Star |
| 46' | 🟨 | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Red Star |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Albin Demouchy · Red Star |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Red Star |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jovany Ikanga · Red Star |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jovany Ikanga · Red Star |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Red Star |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| coach days | 479.00 | 418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1492.55 | 1354.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.63 | -12.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.75 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |