← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Mon, Aug 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC win | 39% | 2.51 |
| Montpellier win | 33% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Montpellier +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Theo Sainte Luce · Montpellier |
| 54' | ⚽ | Tanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier |
| 57' | 🟨 | Enzo Tchato Mbiayi · Montpellier |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lucas Calodat · Le Mans FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jean Vercruysse · Le Mans FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lauray · Le Mans FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dame Gueye · Le Mans FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Junior Ndiaye · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Mans FC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Marie-Marvingt |
| coach days | 413.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1379.51 | 1447.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.00 | -17.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.77 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | — |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 9.28 | 9.03 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | -0.40 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |