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Annecy 2–2 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win40%2.41
Annecy win31%3.27
Draw29%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy +0.2553%1.84
Dunkerque +0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Clement Billemaz · Annecy
9'🟨Allan Linguet · Dunkerque
16'⚽Vincent Pajot · Annecy
17'🟨Ranjan Neelakandan · Annecy
30'⚽Clement Billemaz · Annecy
45'⚽Anto Sekongo · Dunkerque
52'⚽Gessime Yassine · Dunkerque
60'🟨Francois Lajugie · Annecy
90'🟨Thibault Delphis · Annecy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
8Shots5
3On target2
3Corners5
21Fouls9
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnnecyDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Gérard
coach days1568.0046.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.08
corner diff avg (last 5)4.003.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.601.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.13
dominance (last 5)0.500.64
elo1456.731463.91
elo momentum (last 5)-0.47-1.07
eye test v1-1.300.25
eye trend v1-0.130.07
first sub minute (last 10)58.3060.90
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0085.80
possession avg (last 5)47.8058.60
rest days6.756.75
season ppg0.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.005.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.6012.60
skill v1-0.281.31
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.60
state index-0.11-0.18
sterile dominance v10.581.03
threat rate (last 10)0.170.22
threat rate (last 3)0.130.23
threat rate (last 5)0.150.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20