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Red Star 1–3 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Leleu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win50%1.88
Draw27%3.59
Amiens win23%4.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star −0.551%1.88
Amiens −0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Teddy Averlant · Amiens
41'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
50'⚽Teddy Averlant · Amiens
55'⚽Damien Durand · Red Star
57'🟨Ibrahim Fofana · Amiens
67'🟨Ryad Hachem · Red Star
90'🟨Hacene Benali · Red Star
90'🟨Yvan Ikia Dimi · Amiens
90'⚽Yvan Ikia Dimi · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
26Shots10
7On target5
13Corners2
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.590.72
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bauer
coach days410.0014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-4.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.008.40
corners for avg (last 5)1.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.430.40
elo1386.851416.44
elo momentum (last 5)14.09-2.24
eye test v1-0.560.05
eye trend v10.330.45
first sub minute (last 10)64.3061.80
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.540.59
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.006.00
matches since win10.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6082.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4038.60
rest days6.003.97
season ppg1.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.8011.00
skill v10.39-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
state index-0.62-0.59
sterile dominance v10.76-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.180.25
threat rate (last 3)0.160.28
threat rate (last 5)0.170.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20