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Amiens 2–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Mon, Aug 11, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Angoula

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win59%1.63
Draw25%3.82
Amiens win17%6.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens +153%1.81
Reims +147%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.98
Under50%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽ (og)Ras Zabi · Amiens
32'⚽Mamadou Diakhon · Reims
66'🟨Rayan Lutin · Amiens
75'🟨Sergio Akieme · Reims
80'⚽Hafiz Umar Ibrahim · Reims
90'⚽Ange Chibozo · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots10
2On target4
8Corners7
7Fouls16
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.730.66
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Licorne
coach days10.0041.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.40-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)8.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.321.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.09
dominance (last 5)0.330.45
elo1389.431574.83
elo momentum (last 5)5.70-21.50
eye test v1-0.11-0.60
eye trend v10.31-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)64.1052.80
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.700.82
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2081.40
possession avg (last 5)36.6042.60
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.20
skill v1-0.61-0.12
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
squad age—25.22
state index-0.24-0.22
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00