← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Petit
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
| Le Mans FC win | 24% | 4.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Guingamp −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.82 |
| Over | 46% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Edwin Quarshie · Le Mans FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Dylan Ourega · Guingamp |
| 40' | ⚽ | Anthony Ribelin · Le Mans FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samuel Yohou · Le Mans FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Albin Demouchy · Guingamp |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jacques Siwe · Guingamp |
| 87' | ⚽ | Donatien Gomis · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Louis Mafouta · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | William Harhouz · Le Mans FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | William Harhouz · Le Mans FC |
| 90' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Le Mans FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| 90' | ⚽ | Louis Mafouta · Guingamp |
| 90' | ⚽ | William Harhouz · Le Mans FC |
| coach days | 465.00 | 404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1503.88 | 1374.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.45 | 0.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |