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FC Lorient 5–1 Martigues

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win73%1.31
Draw17%5.75
Martigues win10%10.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Martigues −1.7552%1.90
FC Lorient −1.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over70%1.39
Under30%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient
45'⚽Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
51'🟨Steve Solvet · Martigues
58'⚽Karim Tlilli · Martigues
63'⚽Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient
65'⚽Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
66'🟨Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
87'⚽Jean-Victor Makengo · FC Lorient
90'⚽Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
23Shots6
10On target4
6Corners3
13Fouls7
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientMartigues
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.550.74
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat
coach days
343.00
129.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.280.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.802.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.711.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.740.44
elo1622.051396.64
elo momentum (last 5)1.640.97
eye test v10.23-0.19
eye trend v1-0.380.60
first sub minute (last 10)58.7055.20
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.700.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.710.84
league points74.0032.00
league rank1.0018.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4076.60
possession avg (last 5)61.8046.60
rest days7.887.88
scorer concentration0.270.19
season ppg2.110.91
shot diff avg (last 5)8.00-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.2011.60
skill v11.39-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)2.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.00
squad age25.39—
state index0.86-0.49
sterile dominance v10.64-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20