← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Leleu
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 66% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.78 |
| Caen win | 14% | 6.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Bastia −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Noe Lebreton · Caen |
| 24' | ⚽ | Dominique Guidi · Bastia |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ilyes Najim · Caen |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mickaël Le Bihan · Caen |
| 72' | ⚽ | Zakaria Ariss · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| 343.00 |
| 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1470.11 | 1326.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.20 | -13.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| league points | 46.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.03 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |