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Metz 3–3 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Paradis

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win59%1.60
Draw22%4.20
Rodez win19%5.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez −151%1.89
Metz −149%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.49
Under36%2.62

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Aboubacar Lô · Metz
47'🟨Mohamed Bouchouari · Rodez
65'⚽Timothee Nkada · Rodez
69'⚽ (pen)Gauthier Hein · Metz
73'⚽Tawfik Bentayeb · Rodez
77'🟨Tawfik Bentayeb · Rodez
80'⚽Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez
82'🟨Abdel Hakim Abdallah · Rodez
83'⚽ (pen)Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz
87'⚽Ablie Jallow · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots16
8On target7
5Corners8
7Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMetzRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.750.69
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Saint-Symphorien
coach days
305.00
883.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.09
corner diff avg (last 5)3.004.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.002.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.423.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.540.60
elo1596.871468.27
elo momentum (last 5)-12.10-7.07
eye test v10.590.38
eye trend v10.20-0.46
first sub minute (last 10)69.6061.70
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.66
h2 goals (last 10)1.401.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.680.61
league points64.0043.00
league rank3.0011.00
matches since blank9.0010.00
matches since clean sheet10.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.4076.60
possession avg (last 5)66.2045.00
rest days6.006.25
scorer concentration0.250.27
season ppg1.881.26
shot diff avg (last 5)1.405.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.00
skill v11.94-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.80
squad age25.59—
state index0.20-0.25
sterile dominance v11.62-0.80
threat rate (last 10)0.220.31
threat rate (last 3)0.240.32
threat rate (last 5)0.200.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00