← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 55% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Bastia win | 19% | 5.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp −0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Bastia −0.5 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sebas · Bastia |
| 10' | 🟨 | Zakaria Ariss · Bastia |
| 16' | 🟨 | Dylan Louiserre · Guingamp |
| 27' | ⚽ | Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp |
| 29' | 🟨 | Christ Inao Oulaï · Bastia |
| 40' | ⚽ | Felix Tomi · Bastia |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sohaib Nair · Guingamp |
| 53' | ⚽ | Lamine Cissé · Bastia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Maxime Blé · Bastia |
| 83' | ⚽ | Donatien Gomis · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Bohnert · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days |
| 366.00 |
| 335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1503.18 | 1467.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.27 | 10.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 57.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |