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Guingamp 2–2 Bastia

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win55%1.73
Draw26%3.60
Bastia win19%5.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp −0.555%1.73
Bastia −0.545%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Jeremy Sebas · Bastia
10'🟨Zakaria Ariss · Bastia
16'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Guingamp
27'⚽Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp
29'🟨Christ Inao Oulaï · Bastia
40'⚽Felix Tomi · Bastia
50'🟨Sohaib Nair · Guingamp
53'⚽Lamine Cissé · Bastia
81'🟨Maxime Blé · Bastia
83'⚽Donatien Gomis · Guingamp
90'🟨Florian Bohnert · Bastia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots13
10On target4
12Corners6
7Fouls20
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampBastia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.710.60
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days
366.00
335.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.14
corner diff avg (last 5)3.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.203.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.14
dominance (last 5)0.550.58
elo1503.181467.42
elo momentum (last 5)-18.2710.57
eye test v10.350.75
eye trend v1-0.62-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)58.2053.10
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.670.61
league points57.0045.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4080.60
possession avg (last 5)58.8054.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.23
season ppg1.681.32
shot diff avg (last 5)3.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.2014.20
skill v11.290.56
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)6.105.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.80
state index-0.11-0.16
sterile dominance v10.890.18
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20