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Clermont 3–2 Annecy

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win45%2.14
Draw29%3.31
Annecy win27%3.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont −0.2552%1.84
Annecy −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.77
Over46%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Famara Diédhiou · Clermont
26'⚽Mons Bassouamina · Clermont
41'🟨Yohan Demoncy · Annecy
54'⚽ (og)Cheick Konate · Annecy
55'🟨Baïla Diallo · Clermont
62'🟨Théo Guivarch · Clermont
64'⚽Maïdine Douane · Clermont
75'⚽Yohan Demoncy · Annecy
79'🟨Vincent Pajot · Annecy
82'🟨Maïdine Douane · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
5Shots10
3On target1
0Corners5
15Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontAnnecy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.660.52
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel-Montpied
coach days
31.00
1462.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.06
dominance (last 5)0.390.48
elo1385.091471.16
elo momentum (last 5)-35.7212.10
eye test v1-0.81-0.82
eye trend v10.27-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)63.7058.60
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
league points32.0054.00
league rank17.006.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win15.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.6070.20
possession avg (last 5)50.8040.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.19
season ppg0.941.59
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.407.40
skill v10.89-1.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.00
state index-1.600.01
sterile dominance v11.00-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.190.19
threat rate (last 3)0.180.17
threat rate (last 5)0.170.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.20