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Amiens 4–2 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Kubler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC win38%2.50
Amiens win36%2.70
Draw26%3.74

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC +052%1.86
Amiens +048%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.67
Under43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Louis Mafouta · Amiens
17'⚽Antoine Leautey · Amiens
24'⚽Louis Mafouta · Amiens
33'⚽Therence Koudou · Pau FC
47'🟨Ousmane Kanté · Pau FC
67'⚽Mamady Bangré · Pau FC
70'🟨Louis Mafouta · Amiens
86'⚽Malick Mbaye · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
8Shots18
7On target7
4Corners5
8Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.640.66
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days
671.00
1766.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.624.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.28
dominance (last 5)0.380.43
elo1389.351410.15
elo momentum (last 5)12.5019.01
eye test v1-0.500.73
eye trend v10.140.34
first sub minute (last 10)62.6053.80
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.620.68
league points40.0042.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4081.40
possession avg (last 5)37.2045.00
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.290.24
season ppg1.211.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.601.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.2011.60
skill v1-0.910.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
state index-0.32-0.58
sterile dominance v1-0.85-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.250.41
threat rate (last 5)0.270.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60