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Pau FC 2–1 Metz

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win56%1.71
Draw23%4.33
Pau FC win22%4.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz +0.7550%1.93
Pau FC +0.7550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.54
Under38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

51'🟨Alpha Touré · Metz
53'🟨Ismaël Traoré · Metz
73'⚽Pathé Mboup · Pau FC
79'⚽Pape Diallo · Metz
80'🟨Ibou Sane · Metz
81'🟨Aboubacar Lô · Metz
83'⚽ (pen)Tairyk Arconte · Pau FC
85'🟨Antoine Mille · Pau FC
87'🟨Kevin Van Den Kerkhof · Metz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots17
5On target5
6Corners6
7Fouls10
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPau FCMetz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.630.75
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Nouste Camp
coach days
1760.00
299.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.23
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.603.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.802.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.321.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.310.17
dominance (last 5)0.440.53
elo1395.961611.06
elo momentum (last 5)6.356.75
eye test v10.630.63
eye trend v10.09-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)52.7069.70
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.50
keeper form v10.690.70
league points39.0064.00
league rank15.003.00
matches since blank2.008.00
matches since clean sheet3.009.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6085.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0062.80
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg1.181.94
shot diff avg (last 5)2.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.60
skill v10.191.54
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.40
squad age—24.86
state index-0.730.56
sterile dominance v1-0.111.45
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.60