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Rodez 1–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win41%2.36
Rodez win30%3.18
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez +0.2552%1.88
Paris FC +0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC
41'🟨Mory Diaw · Rodez
54'🟨Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez
65'🟨Wilitty Younoussa · Rodez
76'🟨Julien López · Paris FC
78'⚽Tawfik Bentayeb · Rodez
83'🟨Lohann Doucet · Paris FC
90'🟨Julien López · Paris FC
90'🟥Julien López · Paris FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots9
3On target2
6Corners3
9Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.680.73
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days
877.00
695.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)3.202.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.852.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.10
dominance (last 5)0.560.61
elo1466.291595.94
elo momentum (last 5)-7.725.06
eye test v10.280.74
eye trend v1-0.220.15
first sub minute (last 10)65.6055.00
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.751.34
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.620.68
league points42.0070.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank9.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2086.80
possession avg (last 5)47.0063.60
rest days7.757.00
scorer concentration0.280.29
season ppg1.272.12
shot diff avg (last 5)2.604.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.8014.80
skill v1-0.581.72
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.60
squad age—28.52
state index-0.140.54
sterile dominance v1-0.381.21
threat rate (last 10)0.290.20
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80