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Red Star 1–1 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Leleu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win38%2.50
Clermont win33%2.93
Draw28%3.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star +054%1.80
Clermont +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Damien Durand · Red Star
22'🟨Johan Gastien · Clermont
45'🟨Aliou Badji · Red Star
51'🟨Bissenty Mendy · Red Star
58'⚽ (pen)Famara Diédhiou · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots9
1On target2
3Corners1
20Fouls16
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de Paris
coach days
298.00
24.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.09
dominance (last 5)0.470.40
elo1366.921383.85
elo momentum (last 5)7.77-39.93
eye test v1-0.64-0.48
eye trend v1-0.21-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)63.3062.70
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.73—
league points36.0031.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.005.00
matches since win6.0014.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2086.40
possession avg (last 5)55.4052.80
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.17
season ppg1.090.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0011.20
skill v10.691.00
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.20
state index-0.61-1.59
sterile dominance v11.070.91
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.16
threat rate (last 5)0.170.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20