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Bastia 2–3 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia win66%1.44
Draw21%4.61
Grenoble win13%7.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble −1.2551%1.91
Bastia −1.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Gustave Akueson · Bastia
33'⚽Theo Valls · Grenoble
34'⚽Christophe Vincent · Bastia
77'⚽Ayoub Jabbari · Grenoble
82'🟨Ayoub Jabbari · Grenoble
88'⚽Lamine Cissé · Bastia
90'🟨Dominique Guidi · Bastia
90'🟨Shaquil Delos · Grenoble
90'⚽Eddy Sylvestre · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots12
8On target6
5Corners5
9Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBastiaGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.600.66
cards avg (last 5)2.000.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Armand-Césari
coach days
328.00
114.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.512.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.09
dominance (last 5)0.540.33
elo1480.691422.82
elo momentum (last 5)14.78-10.38
eye test v10.36-0.87
eye trend v1-0.51-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)53.7066.70
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.660.81
league points45.0041.00
league rank8.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)50.4039.20
rest days6.257.00
scorer concentration0.210.27
season ppg1.361.28
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-8.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.408.00
skill v10.19-0.53
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.60
state index0.12-0.64
sterile dominance v10.17-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40