← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 64% | 77% | 1.48 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 21% | 14% | 4.65 | fair |
| Red Star win | 15% | 9% | 6.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Star −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Metz −1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Kevin Van Den Kerkhof · Metz |
| 27' | 🟨 | Urie-Michel Mboula · Metz |
| 32' | ⚽ | Damien Durand · Red Star |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gauthier Hein · Metz |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kemo Cissé · Red Star |
| 74' | ⚽ | Idrissa Gueye · Metz |
| 77' | 🟨 | Aboubacar Lô · Metz |
| 77' | 🟨 | Aliou Badji · Red Star |
| 81' | 🟨 | Dylan Durivaux · Red Star |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robin Risser · Red Star |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Red Star |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| Jose Dembi · Red Star |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bissenty Mendy · Red Star |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 292.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1651.62 | 1372.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.40 | -4.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 63.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |