⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Metz 2–2 Red Star

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win64%1.48
Draw21%4.65
Red Star win15%6.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star −1.2553%1.83
Metz −1.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Kevin Van Den Kerkhof · Metz
27'🟨Urie-Michel Mboula · Metz
32'⚽Damien Durand · Red Star
45'🟨Gauthier Hein · Metz
54'⚽Kemo Cissé · Red Star
74'⚽Idrissa Gueye · Metz
77'🟨Aboubacar Lô · Metz
77'🟨Aliou Badji · Red Star
81'🟨Dylan Durivaux · Red Star
90'🟨Robin Risser · Red Star
90'🟨Jose Dembi · Red Star
90'🟨Bissenty Mendy · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots6
7On target3
6Corners1
9Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMetzRed Star
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.760.63
cards avg (last 5)1.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Saint-Symphorien
coach days
292.00
292.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.300.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.831.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1618.301359.67
elo momentum (last 5)22.68-6.46
eye test v10.43-0.45
eye trend v1-0.20-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)67.5061.30
form points (last 5)13.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v10.740.67
league points63.0035.00
league rank3.0016.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.005.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0080.80
possession avg (last 5)59.0060.60
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.270.22
season ppg1.971.09
shot diff avg (last 5)0.002.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.40
skill v11.170.99
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.20
squad age25.20—
state index0.72-0.75
sterile dominance v11.211.14
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.180.15
threat rate (last 5)0.190.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60