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Paris FC 1–0 Bastia

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win46%2.09
Draw29%3.31
Bastia win25%3.88

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia −0.553%1.81
Paris FC −0.547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Alimami Gory · Paris FC
20'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · Paris FC
60'🟨Maxime López · Paris FC
60'🟨Christophe Vincent · Bastia
68'🟨Amine Boutrah · Bastia
83'🟨Johny Placide · Bastia
87'🟥Gustave Akueson · Bastia
90'🟨Dominique Guidi · Bastia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots9
4On target4
4Corners5
11Fouls12
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCBastia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.730.61
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Charléty
coach days
688.00
322.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.203.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.803.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.590.60
elo1590.341486.29
elo momentum (last 5)8.6626.80
eye test v10.830.70
eye trend v10.41-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)60.1054.90
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.630.63
league points67.0045.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8078.40
possession avg (last 5)64.0051.60
rest days6.754.72
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg2.091.41
shot diff avg (last 5)3.604.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.8013.20
skill v11.750.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.80
squad age28.47—
state index0.630.12
sterile dominance v11.24-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.210.30
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40