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Dunkerque 2–0 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win61%1.54
Draw23%4.39
Grenoble win16%5.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque −150%1.93
Grenoble −150%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'🟨Alan Kerouedan · Grenoble
50'⚽Gaëtan Courtet · Dunkerque
89'⚽Muhannad Al Saad · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots4
9On target1
7Corners4
10Fouls9
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunkerqueGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.610.66
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Tribut
coach days
595.00
107.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.662.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.41
elo1471.281433.71
elo momentum (last 5)-36.67-1.85
eye test v1-0.54-0.23
eye trend v1-0.06-0.50
first sub minute (last 10)51.4066.20
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.680.80
league points54.0041.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet6.003.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0080.00
possession avg (last 5)58.4043.20
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.190.27
season ppg1.741.32
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.40
skill v11.05-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.80
state index-0.55-0.38
sterile dominance v10.91-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40