← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 06:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.39 |
| Clermont win | 28% | 3.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ES Troyes AC +0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Clermont +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.77 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.