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Amiens 3–2 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win54%1.78
Draw26%3.78
Amiens win21%4.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens +0.7552%1.86
Guingamp +0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Malick Mbaye · Amiens
21'⚽Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp
35'🟨Lebogang Phiri · Guingamp
36'⚽ (pen)Antoine Leautey · Amiens
51'🟨Ibrahim Fofana · Amiens
52'⚽ (pen)Jacques Siwe · Guingamp
74'⚽Siaka Bakayoko · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots17
4On target6
2Corners6
11Fouls14
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.590.70
cards avg (last 5)2.400.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days
657.00
352.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.370.55
elo1383.741509.33
elo momentum (last 5)1.019.51
eye test v1-1.040.98
eye trend v10.06-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)61.1060.20
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.470.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.630.71
league points37.0054.00
league rank14.005.00
matches since blank4.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0085.40
possession avg (last 5)42.0058.00
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.310.22
season ppg1.191.69
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.603.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.0013.00
skill v1-0.551.24
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.406.40
state index-0.410.03
sterile dominance v1-0.131.02
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.21
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40