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Grenoble 1–2 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win52%1.84
Draw25%3.75
Grenoble win23%4.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC +0.552%1.85
Grenoble +0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Samir Sophian Chergui · Paris FC
57'🟨Adama Camara · Paris FC
63'🟨Thibault De Smet · Paris FC
65'🟨Maxime López · Paris FC
67'⚽Mattheo Xantippe · Grenoble
69'🟨Alimami Gory · Paris FC
77'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · Paris FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots18
3On target7
3Corners9
16Fouls9
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.720.77
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days
101.00
681.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.17
dominance (last 5)0.400.59
elo1441.421582.64
elo momentum (last 5)-3.3710.01
eye test v1-0.590.73
eye trend v1-0.220.26
first sub minute (last 10)66.1059.90
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.820.65
league points41.0064.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6086.20
possession avg (last 5)44.8064.00
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.280.31
season ppg1.372.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.403.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.4014.20
skill v1-0.041.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.60
squad age—27.69
state index-0.320.36
sterile dominance v10.051.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20