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Guingamp 1–2 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win51%1.88
Draw25%3.76
Guingamp win24%4.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient +0.551%1.88
Guingamp +0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Pablo Pagis · FC Lorient
54'⚽Rayan Ghrieb · Guingamp
60'⚽Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
62'⚽Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient
72'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Guingamp
90'🟨Igor Silva · FC Lorient
90'🟨Julien Ponceau · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots13
4On target6
7Corners2
13Fouls15
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.790.63
cards avg (last 5)1.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days
346.00
315.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.35
corner diff avg (last 5)2.602.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.002.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.503.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.17
dominance (last 5)0.550.75
elo1517.921627.10
elo momentum (last 5)28.3520.33
eye test v10.990.74
eye trend v1-0.07-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)59.2062.60
form points (last 5)12.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.603.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
keeper form v10.740.71
league points54.0067.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank7.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6083.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0055.80
rest days4.726.75
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.742.16
shot diff avg (last 5)3.008.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4014.60
skill v11.130.95
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.505.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.405.00
squad age—25.22
state index0.371.11
sterile dominance v10.960.14
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.190.29
threat rate (last 5)0.210.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40