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Rodez 2–2 Caen

← Ligue 2 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win51%1.88
Draw25%3.86
Caen win24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez −0.552%1.88
Caen −0.548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.77
Under45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

47'⚽Timothee Nkada · Rodez
58'🟨Ahmad Toure Ngouyamsa · Rodez
60'⚽Noe Lebreton · Caen
80'🟨Till Cissokho · Rodez
82'⚽Godson Kyeremeh · Caen
87'🟨Jules Gaudin · Caen
90'🟥Mickaël Le Bihan · Caen
90'⚽Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots10
6On target6
2Corners3
12Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.00
box share (last 5)0.660.69
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days
862.00
69.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.632.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.15
dominance (last 5)0.480.55
elo1479.951345.69
elo momentum (last 5)17.20-1.29
eye test v10.470.22
eye trend v1-0.260.42
first sub minute (last 10)65.7055.90
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.770.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.05
keeper form v10.670.69
league points41.0020.00
league rank10.0019.00
matches since blank7.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2081.80
possession avg (last 5)42.6051.40
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.270.28
season ppg1.320.65
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.202.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.80
skill v1-0.950.49
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.40
state index0.15-0.72
sterile dominance v1-0.690.17
threat rate (last 10)0.310.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60